Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball isn’t fooling anyone
When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million contract in December, mouths dropped all around the world. It was a record-breaking contract for someone who had never pitched in Major League Baseball.
The 25-year-old right-hander wowed during spring training with his unconventional workout routine and incredible breaking balls, but his major league debut in South Korea fell short of expectations. In the Dodgers’ loss against the San Diego Padres, he allowed five runs and was removed after one inning.
Yamamoto has improved since then, but his fastball has yet to surprise anyone. His four-seamer has been crushed at a barrel rate of 25% and a slugging percentage of 0.710.
The question is: why?
According to Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs, too many of Yamamoto’s four-seamers are straight down the center. Several things contribute to this, including the physical nature of baseball. On the SNY broadcast, analyst Ron Darling indicated that Yamamoto may be having difficulty adjusting to the new ball. Nippon Professional Baseball’s ball has lower seams and is slightly tackier, making it easier to handle than MLB balls.
Meanwhile, Yamamoto’s secondary pitches have been exceptional. He is striking out batters at a rate of 32.3 percent compared to a 5.4 percent walk rate, indicating that his command is precisely what the Dodgers were hoping for in December. Below is a breakdown of his Statcast data by pitch:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Pitch Type
| Pitch | % | BA | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA | Whiff% | EV | LA | HH% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | 37.0 | .355 | .371 | .710 | .665 | .454 | .486 | 20.9 | 96.5 | 14.9 | 67.9 | 25.0 |
| Non-4-Seam | 63.0 | .167 | .182 | .278 | .257 | .220 | .217 | 39.3 | 84.3 | 5.5 | 41.4 | 6.9 |
| Curve | 28.6 | .208 | .212 | .375 | .304 | .254 | .221 | 37.2 | 81.9 | 5.2 | 46.2 | 7.7 |
| Splitter | 27.3 | .115 | .163 | .192 | .226 | .192 | .227 | 42.9 | 86.2 | 5.3 | 38.5 | 7.7 |
| Cutter | 6.8 | .250 | .122 | .250 | .175 | .225 | .124 | 33.3 | 87.1 | 8.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 |
Darling suggested it might take Yamamoto up to 12 starts for him to completely adjust to MLB, but the stats say he has adjusted just fine with his secondary pitches. He ranks fifth in the league with his 26.9 percent strikeout-to-walk differential.
So far this season, Yamamoto has had to rely on his fastball when his secondary pitches don’t result in strikes early in the count. Therefore, batters are sitting on his fastball, because they are ahead in the count and forcing him to throw the four-seamer for a strike. If he can figure out a way to get ahead in the count with his cutter and curve, he doesn’t have to throw the fastball as much and can get the strikeout with his nasty splitter.
Yamamoto’s splits suggest he is the worst in the first inning (seven earned runs, eight hits, 12.60 ERA). However, this issue could be limited to one opponent. Two of his first six starts have come against the Padres; in the other four he hasn’t allowed a first-inning run.
All signs suggest that Yamamoto needs to do whatever he can to get ahead early with his secondary pitches to be dominant in the league, instead of depending on his fastball to even the count because that is what batters are waiting for.
