Although it is now confirmed that John Calipari will lead Kentucky in 2024–2025—who will be on his team and who will be selected in this summer’s NBA Draft?
It’s not just Dillingham who will be joining the NBA, in reference to Reed and Rob. Although Sheppard’s stock will never be higher than if he joins the league right now, Big Blue Nation is aware of how deeply ingrained Sheppard’s Kentucky roots are, and I’m sure he would love to bring a national title to Lexington, just like his father did. Sheppard had an incredible rookie season and is in a bad year for the NBA draft.
Reed Sheppard, PG
He would probably be the first overall pick in the NBA draft if college basketball players were still considered the best in the country, as Sheppard had arguably the best freshman season of any freshman in history. He shot 52.1% from three on 4.4 attempts, averaging 12.9 points, 4.5 assists, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.5 steals. The primary criticism leveled about his play was its insufficient shooting. It’s unbelievable that a rookie could be so skilled from the beginning of his college career, and Sheppard’s athleticism was evident in every game.
Right now, Big Blue Nation has this fantasy about a Sheppard return to save the program, and maybe even of a Sheppard/Mashburn Jr. backcourt of 2024-25, but even though I’ve hinted at the possibility myself, I’m here to say definitively, Reed Sheppard will not return to Lexington for his sophomore season.
The one-and-done era of college basketball isn’t gone for good, but it’s no longer the best path for teams to win championships and in many cases for players to prepare for the league. This year, John Calipari went back to his one-and-done roots with a freshman class that included Justin Edwards, DJ Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw, Rob Dillingham, and Reed Sheppard, but only two of those five players currently project to be first-round NBA draft picks.
Dillingham and Sheppard will almost certainly be selected in the lottery, so the chances of the Reed and Rob backcourt running it back in Lexington are slim to none, and a whole lot closer to none. With both likely in the NBA next season, and Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell out of eligibility, what players does Coach Cal need to bring back for the Wildcats to be competitive next season?
Kentucky is bringing in the No. 2 freshman class in the country for the 2024-25 season, but in his media appearances since the Oakland upset in Pittsburgh, Coach Cal has extolled the virtues of experience in March and expressed a desire for his team to get older. That happens through the transfer portal, which Calipari will likely attack with new vigor, but it also happens by keeping your top talent on campus for multiple years.
So, Kentucky needs to bring these three players back for a shot at a national title in 2025. You’ll notice pretty quickly that this list doesn’t include Wagner, one of the five-star prizes of the 2023 recruiting class. Wagner was a solid freshman point guard, averaging 9.9 points and 3.3 assists, but shot just 40.5% from the field and his mere presence represented this program’s terminal illness.
Calipari has turned Kentucky basketball into a me-first NBA pipeline, prioritizing personal brand and draft stock over postseason success. Closed-door handshake deals kept Wagner in the starting lineup over Sheppard, not his performance, and for Kentucky ever to perform to its lofty standard again, that culture has to be eradicated. If Kentucky won’t move on from Cal, then Cal moving on from Wagner would at least be a small step in the right direction.
That’s not to say that it’s even Wagner’s fault. As an elite high school player, he earned the status and the leverage to get a guaranteed starting spot, which is what appears to have happened and the only logical explanation for Calipari’s stubbornness with the starting five. It’s Calipari’s fault for giving in to that request or demand because once the meritocracy of sport is forfeited, the politics poison the program.
Wagner could still develop into a winning player and an NBA prospect, but it shouldn’t happen at Kentucky. If the goal is to finally win championships, not dominate draft day, then Coach Cal needs to prioritize retaining these three players this offseason.
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Thiero was far from the most efficient offensive player on the Kentucky roster, but that’s not the expectation. With Reeves, Sheppard, and Dillingham on the floor, Thiero was asked to do the dirty work for the Wildcats and he did it well, averaging 5.0 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, and 0.7 steals.
In the physical SEC, Kentucky needed a reliable wing defender and both Thiero and Justin Edwards slotted into that role, specifically against Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht. It didn’t always go well for the sophomore against Knecht, but his combination of size and athleticism was crucial on that end of the floor, where Kentucky was a disaster all season long.
On offense, he was far from a liability, scoring 7.2 points a game, primarily as a slasher or a cutter. For a fast-paced team, 17.7% of his points came on the fast break, which is 92nd percentile in the country. Beyond just scoring, Thiero took care of the ball for a young Kentucky team, with a 94th percentile assist-to-turnover ratio and 89th percentile turnover percentage.
Thiero looks like he’ll eventually be an NBA draft prospect, but not this season. He’ll be returning to college basketball and Calipari needs to ensure that the Pittsburgh product stays put in Lexington.
Kentucky had a revolving door at center this season, but Calipari eventually landed on sophomore Ugonna Onyenso as the starter, ahead of Aaron Bradshaw and Zvonimir Ivisic. While Onyenso provided nearly nothing on the offensive end, just a 9.8% usage rate with 31.4% of his 3.6 points a game coming on second-chance attempts, he was the anchor that Kentucky needed on the other end of the floor.
Calipari will always be able to recruit the offensive creators, but rarely does he have a big man who can lock down the paint the way Onyenso does. This season, the seven-footer averaged 2.8 blocks a game in under 20 minutes on the floor and posted a block percentage of 14.7% which is in the 100th percentile of college basketball.
Onyenso is also the type of player who could ramp up his minutes from 18.6 per game because he doesn’t waste his five fouls, averaging 1.4 a game with a 100th percentile block/foul rate. Kentucky needs to solve the defensive end of the floor next season and the continuity of Onyenso returning to start at center would ease a lot of stress in that regard.
Justin Edwards, F
You may be noticing a theme of prioritizing Kentucky’s primary defensive stoppers over offensive creators, but what about a player who could develop into both? Justin Edwards left a lot to be desired in his freshman season, dropping from a possible No. 1 overall NBA draft pick to out of the first-round conversation with his play. However, the talent is still there and even on a team with a lot of ball-dominant guards, Edwards started to break through in the second half of the year.
With a 6-foot-8 frame, Edwards accepted his role as a wing defender and was more than serviceable. Next year, Calipari needs Edwards to take another step on the offensive end and the groundwork was laid over the final five games of this past season when he averaged 13.2 points compared to 8.8 for the year.
While there wasn’t much to his game as an on-ball creator, with a 25th percentile assist to usage rate and 26th percentile free throw attempt rate, Edwards was efficient as a scorer. He posted a 77th percentile true shooting percentage of 58.6%, shot 36.5% from three on 2.7 attempts per game, and scored 22.1% of his points off second chances.
Edwards almost certainly came into the year expecting to be the star and primary offensive creator, but once he realized that wasn’t going to happen, he settled into his role nicely as a three-and-D wing who attacks the offensive boards and runs in transition. There’s more talent left for the former five-star to tap into, and for all his flaws as a gameday decision-maker, Calipari might be the perfect head coach to develop Edwards into a star.
