Big 12 expert picks 2024: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

The Big 12 reaches its final form in 2024 as Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah balloon the conference to 16 teams. Fittingly, the conference is set to have one of its most competitive seasons in history. Five different teams receive a first-place vote in the preseason Big 12 poll, but newcomer Utah emerged on top after winning two of the final three Pac-12 championships.

Remember, however, the Big 12 is a league that thrives on chaos. Between 2017 and 2022, there was a newcomer in the conference championship game every single year. Just last season, Oklahoma State jumped from No. 7 in the preseason poll to the Big 12 title game. A year earlier, No. 5 Kansas State beat No. 7 TCU in the title game to capture the Big 12 crown.

After an underwhelming season in 2023, the league is stacked with returning quarterbacks and top rushers. In fact, four of the top eight rushers in college football from 2023 and six of the top 19 play in the Big 12 this season. More than 10 teams return a starting quarterback. Two of the top three teams in returning production play in the Big 12. A team from outside of the top five of the preseason Big 12 poll is sure to rise — but who?

Let’s have a look as our CBS Sports college football experts have provided their picks and predictions for the Big 12 ahead of the 2024 season.

Arizona: Yes, the Wildcats return one of the best quarterback-wide receiver duos in the sport with Noah Fifita and Tet McMillan. And yes, first-year coach Brent Brennan brings with him a profile that includes impressive work at San José State. But Arizona is currently No. 21 in the country carrying a roster that lost 28 transfers off last year’s 10-win team with many of them — including the team’s leading rusher and multiple projected starters — following Jedd Fisch to Washington. I don’t see a big separation between Arizona and the likes of Iowa State and West Virginia — both of whom are unranked — when it comes to how the Big 12 stacks up. — Chip Patterson (David Cobb)

Kansas State: Kansas State deserves every bit of credibility it has earned over the past three years under Chris Klieman. But in a transition season, the Wildcats are getting a little too much love as a serious Big 12 contender. Kansas State lost All-American lineman Cooper Beebe, star tight end Ben Sinnott, top receiver Phillip Brooks and a host of other key players. Quarterback Avery Johnson will someday be the Big 12’s best quarterback — but just not right now after completing 56% of his passes as a freshman. To me, the Wildcats are a year away from hitting their stride and getting back into the College Football Playoff conversation. The competition among the top six teams in the Big 12 will be incredibly fierce, and there are just a few too many moving pieces to pencil Kansas State comfortably into the Big 12 title game. — Shehan Jeyarajah (Will Backus)

Colorado: Where do you want to start? Coach Prime owned September last season before reality kicked in. He was exposed for not hitting the portal hard enough in both lines and the Buffs finished 1-8. It’s hard to envision Deion Sanders turning it around in one season. The schedule is one of the toughest in the Big 12. Colorado opens with North Dakota State at home, and we know the Bison are giant killers. Then there are back-to-back road games at Nebraska and Colorado State — both of which are big-time revenge games. The Cornhuskers and Rams will be ready. The rules say quarterback Shedeur Sanders has to play another year, but what kind of shape will he be in for the NFL? The 56 sacks allowed by Colorado last season were the most surrendered by a Power Five squad since 2012. I’m thinking twice about climbing on the Deion hype train again. — Dennis Dodd

Oklahoma State: I’m not terribly concerned with the Cowboys on offense. They have the best running back in college football and enough in the passing game coming back to score with just about anyone. The problem for me lies in a defense that I worry will hold them back especially against the pass. — Richard Johnson

West Virginia: The Mountaineers caught a lot of breaks last season and took advantage of them. It’s nothing to be ashamed of, because that’s what good teams do. Still, this is a team that wasn’t as good as its 9-4 record suggested, and West Virginia played a few too many close games against mediocre competition. — Tom Fornelli

UCF: UCF came to the Big 12 after a very successful run in the AAC that saw the Knights get to two New Year’s Six bowl games.  They entered the Big 12 coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons but finished last season with only six wins. UCF does not appear to be ready yet for the step up in competition. Another maybe bowl-eligible season looks likely again. — Jerry Palm

Most underrated team

Kansas: Give me all the Jayhawks stock I can buy to make a pretty serious run at a Big 12 championship behind Jalon Daniels at quarterback; he just has to stay healthy. If he can, this Lance Leipold team will do what just about every Leipold team has done before it: win. — Johnson (Dodd, Backus)

Iowa State: Iowa State improved from 1-8 against Big 12 foes in 2022 to 6-3 last season. Now, the Cyclones lead the league in returning production and may take another step forward. The Cyclones defense is stacked with proven veterans, and the offense is poised to be sneaky good. The line should be one of the league’s best, and redshirt sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht has all of his top targets back. Closing the regular season at Utah and against Kansas State is tough, but the Cyclones should be firmly in the league title hunt when that stretch arrives. — Cobb (Jeyarajah)

UCF: It shouldn’t take too much imagination to picture how the pieces will come together for Gus Malzahn on offense. K.J. Jefferson is the type of dynamic quarterback that Gus can thrive with, and the offensive backfield has real balance with 1,400-yard rusher R.J. Harvey back in the fold and former Toledo standout Peny Boone joining the running back room this summer. While I’m not picking the Knights to contend for a Big 12 title this year, I think they could finish the season in the mix for fifth place — a few spots higher than the media poll from last month. — Patterson

Texas Tech: Nobody has talked much about Texas Tech since Kliff Kingsbury left in 2019. But, to be fair, the Red Raiders struggled under Matt Wells. However, Joey McGuire has come in and posted back-to-back winning seasons and things are going back in the right direction. With the schedule they have in 2024, eight or even nine wins is possible. Maybe a nine-win season would get people to take notice. — Palm

Kansas State: It’s odd to consider a team many consider to be one of the favorites to win the Big 12 underrated, but it’s the Big 12; it’s hard to find an underrated team in a league full of similarly rated teams. Still, Kansas State has been one of the Big 12’s best teams for a while now, and people seem a little too eager to crown Utah as Big 12 champion in its first season in a new league. I like the Utes a lot, too, but overlook the Wildcats at your peril. — Fornelli

Bold predictions

• Dennis Dodd: I’ve got two. The Big 12 will get two teams in the playoff with either Kansas State or Utah reaching the semifinals. Kansas’ Lance Leipold will be national coach of the year candidate after winning at least nine games.
• Tom Fornelli: Every single team in the Big 12 will lose at least three conference games, which means the league will only get its champion into the playoff.
• Chip Patterson: The Big 12 produces just one CFP team in 2024. I agree that no conference will be more competitive up and down the standings on a week-in, week-out basis. While that’s great to sell to advertisers and generate buzz, I think it’s going to lead to more losses for the league’s top teams. Throw in the potential of an upset in the Big 12 title game, and the chaos that will make fans love Saturdays could lead to less teams playing for it all around the holidays.

• Shehan Jeyajarah: The top six teams in the Big 12 will all finish within one game of each other in conference play. That will set off a controversial wave of tiebreakers to ultimately decide who will play for a conference championship and earn a trip to the College Football Playoff. The Big 12 will be the early face of the chaos of division-less, 16-team conference races that other leagues will eventually face.
• Richard Johnson: If Jalon Daniels stays healthy (and I understand it’s a big if), his dual-threat ability vaults Kansas to serious conference title contender status and propels him to New York to hold up a certain stiff-arming trophy in early December.
• David Cobb: Utah tight end Brant Kuithe will lead the Utes to the Big 12 title and earn first-team All-American honors. No other tight end in college football will catch more passes than Kuithe.
• Jerry Palm: After another mediocre season, the Deion Sanders honeymoon — if there still is one — will be over. I don’t think he will get fired at the end of this season, but his seat will be on fire at the beginning of 2025.
• Will Backus: The Big 12 will produce two College Football Playoff teams. There are five teams that have a legit shot to win this conference, and six or seven could finish the year ranked, so that will help the overall perception of strength.

Big 12 predicted order of finish

	Dennis Dodd	Tom Fornelli	Chip Patterson	Shehan Jeyarajah	Richard Johnson	David Cobb	Jerry Palm	Will Backus
1.	Utah	Kansas State	Oklahoma State	Utah	Kansas State	Utah	Utah	Utah
2.	Kansas State	Utah	Utah	Iowa St.	Utah	Kansas State	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State
3.	Kansas	Kansas	Kansas State	Kansas	Kansas	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	Kansas State
4.	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	Kansas	Kansas State	Arizona	Iowa St.	Kansas	Kansas
5.	Arizona	Arizona	Iowa St.	Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State	Kansas	Iowa St.	Arizona
6.	Iowa St.	Iowa St.	UCF	Arizona	Iowa St.	Arizona	Arizona	Iowa St.
7.	UCF	UCF	West Virginia	West Virginia	UCF	West Virginia	TCU	West Virginia
8.	Texas Tech	Texas Tech	Arizona	UCF	West Virginia	TCU	Texas Tech	UCF
9.	West Virginia	West Virginia	TCU	TCU	Texas Tech	UCF	UCF	Texas Tech
10.	Houston	TCU	Colorado	Texas Tech	TCU	Texas Tech	West Virginia	TCU
11.	TCU	Cincinnati	Texas Tech	Colorado	Baylor	Baylor	Colorado	Colorado
12.	Baylor	Colorado	Baylor	Baylor	BYU	Colorado	Baylor	Baylor
13.	Cincinnati	Baylor	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Houston	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Houston
14.	BYU	Houston	Houston	BYU	Colorado	BYU	Arizona St.	Cincinnati
15.	Arizona St.	BYU	BYU	Arizona St.	Cincinnati	Arizona St.	BYU	BYU
16.	Colorado	Arizona St.	Arizona St.	Houston	Arizona St.	Houston	Houston	Arizona St.

Big 12 champion

Utah: Competing in the Big 12 is about development cycles, and Utah just so happens to be at the top of theirs. When quarterback Cameron Rising is fully healthy, the Utes are 19-4 over the past three seasons with two conference championships. Utah also added four proven pass-catchers via the transfer portal to team up with tight end Brant Kuithe and receiver Money Parks. The defense is stacked as usual, headlined by defensive tackle Junior Tafuna. If some things break right, this could be the best overall team of the Kyle Whittingham era. The Utes’ road to the College Football Playoff is by no means easy, but only three of the six top contenders are on Utah’s schedule, giving them a critical cushion to reach the conference title game. — Jeyarajah (Cobb, Palm, Backus)

Kansas State: Chris Klieman has been the perfect coach to follow Bill Snyder. The former North Dakota State coach was quick to realize K-State is a developmental program. His experience at the FCS level allowed him to coach up three-stars into starters. In five seasons, he has won 62% of his games and a conference title. Counting sophomore sensation quarterback Avery Johnson, the Wildcats have one of the best rushing attacks in the country. Dylan Edwards (Colorado) and DJ Giddens (K-State) have both led Big 12 teams in rushing. It helps that Utah isn’t on the schedule. Watch the Oct. 26 game against rival Kansas. The winner remains in playoff contention and has a heck of a chance to win the league. — Dodd (Fornelli, Johnson)

Oklahoma State: This is an all-in year for Oklahoma State after successfully holding together the core pieces of a team that finished as the runner-up in the Big 12 last season. This is one of the most experienced teams in the country, and especially so at key positions like the offensive line, which is what paves the way for star running back Ollie Gordon II as the engine of the offense. The path will not be easy; the entire bet on Oklahoma State is that they are playing their best football in a three-week stretch that includes Utah, Kansas State (on the road) and West Virginia. But if Oklahoma State emerges from that midseason-gauntlet in Big 12 title contention, they’ve got the roster to hold serve and finish the job. — Patterson