Key Player has been blaned from Edmonton Oilers.But beware of what comes next.Here’s Why

There’s rage in Florida Panthers country about the Stanley Cup Final, much of it directed at the referees in Game 5, but some of it cast on starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky for his less than stellar play in the last two games.

In Edmonton Oilers country, meanwhile, some are expressing confidence that the Oilers now have Bob’s number, that the Oilers have figured out his weaknesses and are systemically exploiting them.

But I’m not counting out Bobrovsky. I’m counting on him to rebound and play good-to-great hockey. The ace Russian goalie has already stolen two wins for his Panthers this series in Games 1 and 3. He could easily do so again. In fact, Friday night’s Game 6 is ripe for Bob’s picking given how desperate Florida is for a win, how close to the two teams are, and, most notably, Bobrovsky’s own excellent record for rapidly recovering from bad games this 2023-24 season.

He’s rarely had two bad games in a row — we’ll get into the details in a moment — and that has tempered criticism of him somewhat, even as the anger in Florida over the Panthers’ recent losses is rising, with Bobrovsky getting blasted in the updraft.

For example, on the Panther Pourri podcast, commentator T.J. Peterson took a break from ranting about the unfairness of the referees in Game 5 to throw a few punches Bobrovsky’s way, such as “Bobrovsky couldn’t save sh*t,” and in regards to the suggestion that Connor McDavid’s sharp angle goal that found its way between Bobrovsky’s skates was a fluke shot, adding: “It’s not really a fluke. It’s Bob f*cked up. He needs to have that.”

Peterson’s anger is extravagant but his judgement here is sound — Bob did indeed need to have that one. It was an iffy goal, the kind of backbreaker where the goalie clearly errors, punching a hole in his team’s morale such that it’s unlikely that team will recover in the game. Edmonton fans witnessed such a goal against when Stuart Skinner muffed the puck behind the Oilers net in Game 3, leading to a fast and decisive Panther’s goal.

Others in the hockey world have also noticed Bobrovsky’s slide. ESPN’s sharp commentator Greg Wyshynski said on The Drop podcast after Game 5: “Another bad outing from Sergei Bobrovsky. You know (in previous Final games) he would stop a breakaway, he would stop these grade A chances, he would not give up a soft goal. He did none of that in Game 5. He gave up a goal to McDavid in Game 5 that’s unconscionable because he was playing too deep in his net, and McDavid knew it, and he knew exactly what to do with the puck.. . (Bobrovsky) was infinitely human for the second straight game.”

And Detroit hockey writer George Malik posted: “I still think that Bobrovsky’s the ‘better goalie,’ but the Oilers have broken him down — and broken down the defense in front of him — rather systematically. Every little crack has been opened.”

Goalie experts also weighed in, saying that Bobrovsky blew the technique on McDavid’s shot, failing to go down and over off the bottom of the net in the Reverse-VH pose, instead standing tall and getting beat down low. InGoal Magazine posted a video of the goal and said, “This will be our response from now on whenever someone responds to any Reverse-VH goal with ‘just stand up’ … And no this is not a Bob critique, very uncharacteristic of his tactics.”

Former NHL goalie Martin Biron also posted about Bob’s awkward technique. “Where are all my RVH haters?!?! Haha!! Goalie Bob played that like a 1985 goalie and got beat. RVH, VH, Panda, Overlap, Stand up, they are all save skills that need to be used in the right situation. Evolution in goalie play can’t be overlook and RVH would have helped here!!”

Confidence is now being expressed by numerous Edmonton commentators and fans that Bobrovsky is vulnerable.

Oilers Nation writer Sid @NHL_Sid said recently: “Bobrovsky is great at stopping in-zone slot shots (one reason why FLA’s PK has been so good), but he can get beaten off the rush, especially up high. The dam has finally broke, and I hope the Oilers have gotten into Bobrovsky’s head for the rest of the series. Dare I hope?”

Oilers fan Mathew Panchyshyn, who engages in stat analysis of the team on social media, had the same opinion: “Edm has figured out Bobrovsky… Edm has discovered that attacking Bob while he’s moving is a superb recipe for success.”

And at Oilers Now,  commentator Brenden Escott said, “You’ve got goaltending going in two different directions entirely. You can’t discount what this has meant for Edmonton. Skinner in Games 4-to-7 is 9-0 — and I’ll give a shout out to Sportsnet stats for these — he’s 9-0 with a 1.57 goals against average, and a .938 save percentage. And then you’ve got Bobrovsky who since the third period of Game 3 has a .756 save percentage.”

Of the Oilers shooters, Escott said, “They’ve obviously solved Bob, as evidenced to me by the goal McDavid scored right into his feet.”

 

I should point out that host Bob Stauffer added a note of caution about Bob: “He could come in and stone Edmonton Friday or stone Edmonton Monday. He’s that good a goalie. ”

And it’s fair to mention that in Florida, despite Bobrovsky’s recent losses and many goals against, confidence remains high that he and the team can rebound and beat the Oilers in Game 6.

Said Peterson: “If Bob plays well in Game 6, I’m not going to say the Panthers are definitely going to win, but I feel confident about Game 6 in particular.”

And Panther Pourri show host Jacob Landsman added, “Bob has had a couple of not-his-best games. We just need early-series Bob back, and we need Eastern Conference Finals Bob back… Get Bob playing back at the level we know he can play at and we’ll have a real good chance in these last two games.”

Those in Florida or Edmonton betting on Bobrovsky being good and maybe even stealing another win are clear-eyed realists.

While Stuart Skinner’s season has been marked by extended hot and then cold streaks, cold and then hot, Bobrovsky has been the model of consistency. In 58 regular season and 22 playoff games in 2023-24, he’s had 25 games with a save percentage under .900 — a reasonable dividing line between a goalie generally doing his job and one not doing it. But rarely did he have two such below average games in a row.

Let’s set aside his last two rancid starts against the Oilers and look at his 10 worst games, where he had a record of two wins and eight losses and a combined .797 save percentage. He and/or the defence in front of him were wretched in these ten games. But in nine of the ten games, Bobrovsky rebounded at once, having a solid game in his next start, posting nine wins, one loss and a 0.939 save percentage.

The turn-around from bad to much better has been fast and dramatic. Only seven times this year has Bobrovsky had two subpar games with a below .900 save percentage in a row. And after putting together two stinkers in a row, Bob has a record of four wins, three losses and a 0.939 save percentage.

Only once this year did he have three subpar games in a row and he rebounded from that three-game streak with a win and that same 0.939 save percentage in the victory.

Bobrovsky is not a goalie to count out for long. I’m not counting him out in the least.

Yes, history does not repeat. The pressures are different now. The shooters are different. The stakes are higher. Maybe Bobrovsky’s physical condition has taken a downward turn.

Numerous factors are different. But facing numerous different challenges in different stretches of games this year, Bobrovsky has proven himself to be resilient and excellent in recovery.

Of course, Edmonton can still beat him and the Panthers in Game 6. Edmonton has had significantly more Grade A shots this series and Skinner has demonstrated he can also conjure up big saves and massive games. But I’m not counting on Bobrovsky to let in any more backbreakers.

I’m counting on Edmonton players realizing the real imperative is to play such focused, disciplined, and smart defence that if they only beat Bobrovsky once in Game 6, they still win.

One or two or maybe three goals is enough for Edmonton if each and every Oilers player brings his A+ game on defence. A few goals against Bobrovsky isn’t too much to ask, even if he gets red hot.

That’s the winning mindset for Friday night, correct?

 

How do you see it?