Colorado State University meteorologists have updated their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The news isn’t good.
Forecasters have increased their forecast, continuing to predict an “extremely active” season with 25 named storms. That’s two more storms than earlier predictions.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the forecast said, adding that “Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season.”
Indications as early as February have had forecasters on edge, predicting it will be an active season because of the combination of La Niña and record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic basin. The two together pack a powerful punch when it comes to hurricanes.
“La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity,” Colorado State forecasters said. La Niña lacks the wind shear associated with El Niño that helps tear apart developing storms or keeping others from intensifying.
“Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.”
Those warm Atlantic waters provide an environment favorable for both the development and intensification of hurricanes, CSU said.
What is the average number of hurricanes in a hurricane season?
Based on averages from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14.4 named storms, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The average number of hurricanes is 7.2 and the average number of major hurricanes is 3.2, CSU said. That makes predictions for 2024 well above the average.
The first named storm typically forms in mid to late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September, although there have been exceptions to all of these.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season started June 1. It’ll end Nov. 30, although storms can and have occurred outside of those dates.
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