Should the Red Sox trade Wilyer Abreu? Exploring the pros and cons

As the 2024 MLB offseason progresses, the Boston Red Sox find themselves at a crossroads in their rebuilding process. With a roster full of young, promising talent, a central question has emerged: Should the team trade Wilyer Abreu, one of their top outfield prospects? Abreu, who was acquired from the Houston Astros in the trade that sent Christian Vázquez to Houston in 2022, has shown flashes of potential, but is he part of the future, or could he be a valuable trade chip for the Red Sox as they aim to contend sooner rather than later?

The Case for Trading Wilyer Abreu

While the Red Sox front office has been bullish on their prospects, particularly in the outfield, the team has several factors that could make trading Abreu a smart decision.

1. Outfield Depth
   The Red Sox have an outfield loaded with potential. Veterans like Alex Verdugo and the recently acquired Masataka Yoshida are mainstays in the lineup, while emerging young talents such as Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers (who’s capable of moving between third base and the outfield), and Triston Casas (who could eventually split time between first base and the outfield) are all factors in the crowded outfield. With so many players in the mix for regular playing time, Abreu, a left-handed hitter with some power potential, could find himself without a clear path to consistent at-bats. Given the Red Sox’s surplus of outfielders, it may be better to cash in on Abreu’s value now while his stock is relatively high, especially if he could bring in a valuable starting pitcher or bolster another area of need.
2. Trade Value and Potential Return
   Abreu’s stock is arguably at its peak. In 2023, he posted a strong performance in Triple-A, showing an ability to hit for power, get on base, and play above-average defense in the outfield. His solid minor league numbers make him an attractive piece for teams in need of a young, controllable outfielder with upside. By trading Abreu, the Red Sox could potentially acquire a starting pitcher or another top-tier prospect, which could accelerate their competitive timeline. As teams like the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays continue to build powerful farm systems, the Red Sox could use their depth to improve their pitching staff, which remains an area of concern for the franchise.
3. Addressing the Starting Rotation
   While the Red Sox offense is largely set, their starting rotation remains a major question mark. Acquiring pitching help could be a high priority for the team. Wilyer Abreu, as a cost-controlled player with significant upside, could be packaged with other assets to land a front-line starting pitcher or even a high-potential pitching prospect. A trade involving Abreu might be the ticket to bolstering Boston’s rotation, which has often been inconsistent in recent years. Teams in need of outfield depth might be willing to take on Abreu, knowing they’re getting a player with both immediate and long-term value.

The Case Against Trading Wilyer Abreu

While there are clear reasons to trade Wilyer Abreu, there are also valid arguments for keeping the talented outfielder in the fold.

1. Untapped Potential
   Abreu’s ceiling is not yet fully realized, and he has shown the potential to develop into a power-hitting outfielder with a strong on-base percentage. In 2023, he posted an .850 OPS in Triple-A, showcasing the ability to get on base, hit for power, and contribute offensively. He’s also a strong defensive player, capable of playing both center and corner outfield spots. If Abreu continues to develop, he could provide the Red Sox with a dynamic, cost-controlled outfield bat for years to come, one that can complement the power-hitting style of players like Devers and Yoshida. By trading him now, the team could be selling short on a player who might be an integral part of their lineup down the road.
2. Long-Term Rebuilding Strategy
   The Red Sox are in the midst of a rebuild, though the pace has been quicker than initially anticipated. Boston has made progress with its young players and is looking for a balance between fielding a competitive team and building for the future. In a division that features perennial contenders like the Yankees and Rays, the Red Sox cannot afford to be short-sighted. Trading away a high-upside prospect like Abreu could limit their depth for the long term. Keeping Abreu in the fold might be the best approach if the Red Sox want to avoid depleting their farm system and instead build a core of homegrown players around Devers, Casas, and others. The development of Abreu could be a key piece in their future success.
3. Team Control and Financial Flexibility
   One of the biggest advantages of keeping Abreu is the financial flexibility he provides. As a young player, Abreu is under team control for the foreseeable future, meaning the Red Sox wouldn’t need to spend a lot of money to keep him in the lineup. This can be especially valuable for a team that has had issues with payroll flexibility in recent seasons. By holding on to Abreu, the Red Sox can maintain a low-cost, high-reward asset, which could allow them to spend money in other areas, like bolstering their pitching staff or adding other veteran pieces to the roster.
4. Injury Concerns and Roster Flexibility
   Injuries, especially in the outfield, can derail even the most well-laid plans. In a season where depth and flexibility will be crucial, having a player like Abreu — who can step into a starting role if needed — could be a safeguard against injury. With the uncertainty of whether veterans like Verdugo or Yoshida can stay healthy throughout a 162-game season, having a versatile, capable player like Abreu waiting in the wings could be invaluable.

Conclusion

Ultimately, the decision to trade Wilyer Abreu is one that hinges on the Red Sox’s larger strategic vision for both the short and long term. If the team is looking to make a splash in 2024, trading Abreu for immediate pitching help might make sense. However, if Boston values its depth of young talent and sees Abreu as a potential future cornerstone of their outfield, holding onto him might be the wiser move.

The Red Sox are in an interesting position — balancing the need to contend now while also preparing for a sustainable future. Whether they decide to trade or retain Abreu, his development will remain one of the key stories in the Red Sox’s ongoing journey toward becoming a true contender once again.