When the 2027 Rugby World Cup begins in Australia, Warren Gatland will hope the year 2024 signalled the start of a rebuilding phase which takes Wales back to somewhere near the top of the international game.
Christ Tshiunza, Archie Griffin, Jac Morgan, Mason Grady, Eddie James, Josh Hathaway and Sam Costelow are just seven players under the age of 25 who Gatland hopes will be pushing world class by the time Wales rock up in Australia in three years time. Whether that turns into reality or not remains to be seen, but Gatland has every faith Wales will a force to be reckoned with in a few years’ time.
But the New Zealander really needs to start winning Test matches this autumn and what this side really need is some experience. Assuming they have recovered from injury, Gatland will have the option of selecting seasoned campaigners like Taulupe Faletau and Gareth Anscombe.
He will then have to make the decision over whether to bring players back in or stick with youth. “We are just missing a bit of experience and at times our naivety is evident in key areas of the field, but what I can’t fault is their work-rate and commitment,” wrote Gatland in his Telegraph column.
There have been positive aspects of their game throughout 2024 but they have failed to sustain a high level of performance for the full 80 minutes, which has ultimately been their downfall. The fact of the matter is Wales have lost their previous nine Test matches and they need to taste that winning feeling or they will become accustomed to losing.
Winning is a habit but so is losing. In order to turn narrow defeats into victories Wales need to find a dominant scrum, which has not been the case in 2024.
Archie Griffin was one of the success stories of the recent tour of Australia with his his work around the park in defence – where he made a remarkable 26 tackles in the first Test – and his strong carrying a huge asset to Wales. He was also named as a potential Lion in 2025 by former Wales captain Sam Warburton.
It must be noted the 22-year-old has only started a handful of games at senior level for either Bath or Wales so nobody can expect Griffin to be perfect at this stage. But putting the fanfare to one side, his scrummaging isn’t quite where it needs to be for an international prop, although that’s not to say it wont get there with experience.
However, the fact of the matter is Wales have struggled at the set-piece throughout all eight of those defeats and need a tighthead who can anchor the scrum. Gatland needs to select Tomas Francis in this squad for autumn Tests against Fiji, Australia and South Africa, respectively. New Scarlets signing Henry Thomas also needs to be considered because Wales need a solid platform to work off.
When selecting players who are based abroad Gatland needs to ensure they add real value to the squad because their availability for training sessions is less than those who are based in Wales. Yes, Francis currently plies his trade for Provence Rugby in the PRO D2 but the second tier of French rugby is known for its ferocious scrummaging.
The 32-year-old played 19 times for Provence last season, starting 16 games, and is a powerful scrummager who was the unsung hero of the Wales pack for the best part of nine years. Griffin is a fine prospect and needs to be persevered with but Wales really do need Francis to return to the fold because, as it stands, he is one of the only players capable of fixing Wales’ scrum woes in the short-term.
How many games would Wales have won in this nine-game losing streak if Francis had played? It’s difficult to tell because there was a whole lot more wrong than just the scrum but they would have stood a better chance of doing so if Francis had been wearing the number three shirt.
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“Our whole planning was to pick a group of youngsters after the experience we lost from the World Cup to develop through to the World Cup in 2027 in Australia,” said Warren Gatland in the aftermath of Wales’ defeat to Australia last weekend. “If you’re another team at the moment, and having seen how much we can improve as a group, you won’t want us in your World Cup pool in 2027.”
A lot can happen in the space of three years but it would be a huge surprise to many within the game if Bath centre Louie Hennessey is not added to this group and wasn’t a key player in the senior side when Wales return to Australia for the World Cup in 2027. There were small signs of progress for Wales this summer, even if the results didn’t go their way, but one area which they have not yet solved is the midfield.
The centre partnership of Mason Grady and Owen Watkin has failed to fire, although it takes time for a new midfield pairing to really find its feet at international level. Wales have a plethora of talented midfielders such as Grady, Joe Roberts, Eddie James, Harri Ackerman and Hennessey, among others, but finding the right balance will be key.
The focus of the Wales management has been on their tour of Australia but they would have been keeping a close eye on events at the U-20 World Championship in South Africa. Wales’ standout player by far has been powerful Bath centre Hennessey who has been among the best backs in the competition.
Those within the upper echelons of Welsh rugby view Hennessey as a special talent with an offloading game similar to All Blacks legend Sonny Bill Williams. Ironically, Williams himself was full of admiration for Hennessey’s skills when an outrageous offload for Wales U20s in last year’s Six Nations put Llien Morgan over for the try of the championship. You can see that here.
One man who knows all about Hennessey is Cardiff academy manager Gruff Rees, who first identified the powerful centre while he was playing in the Dewar Shield. Unfortunately, Cardiff could not hold onto Hennessey who decided to sign for Bath, but Rees is confident he has what it takes to become a fully-fledged senior Wales international in the near future.
“Athletically we always thought he was going to be good enough to thrive at professional level and then international level,” Rees told WalesOnline. “What I like about Louie is he’s smart, takes things on board and he’s also developed his defensive game over the past few months.
“He’s been outstanding for the U20s this summer. He’s been taking the ball to the line, developing his skill set while he’s more of a wide ranging threat with ball in hand. I think that’s been really good to see.
“I think most coaches in the modern game are looking for triple threat centres. He’s starting to develop that and seeing the game a little bit differently.
“We know he can run the line and he’s got a good understanding of partner plays but he’s adding things to his game all the time and he can execute under pressure as well.”
Throughout the Six Nations and the summer tour Wales have succeeded in putting sides under pressure but have lacked a cutting edge behind the scrum.
The jury is very much out on whether Grady and Watkin is the right partnership, but at the moment Wales’ midfield attack looks far too one dimensional. Wales need centres who have a real point of difference, who can dominate the collisions but also have the skillset to unlock defences.
The 6ft 3ins and 16st 4lbs Hennessey is someone who will certainly come into the mix over the next year and is a player who doesn’t just challenge defences with his explosive power but can manipulate them with his passing game.
“He can poke his nose through the line because of his acceleration and physique but he’s got an awareness of when and how to offload effectively,” said Rees.
“People are being coached to run good support lines off Louie as well but he’s also smart enough to know how a team can build pressure as well. He could easily make it as a 12 or a 13 but I wouldn’t like to pigeon hole him into one position.
“Personally I think he’s more of a wide ranging player in terms of being able to stay square in the wide channels while hitting good lines as a 13. He’s also developing his skillset in the wide channels and can put people away with his passing game.
“I can see him playing off people at 10 and 12 and I think he can kick on as a future 13.”
While his offloading game catches the eye, his defence has improved immeasurably, as has his decision-making under pressure.
If he stays injury-free Gatland will have a serious player on his hands in the near future and it would be a surprise if Hennessey wasn’t a mainstay of the Wales midfield at the 2027 World Cup.
“I can see him playing off people at 10 and 12 and I think he can kick on as a future 13.”
While his offloading game catches the eye, his defence has improved immeasurably, as has his decision-making under pressure.
