8 Sopranos Finale Theories That Can Finally Explain Tony’s Death 17 Years Later

The guy in the “Members Only” jacket is the most common theory for Tony’s potential assassin, as his association with Eugene Pontecorvo’s tragic end suggests a motive for revenge.
Tony’s final scene could be seen as a homage to The Godfather, with the nervous diner patron possibly emulating the iconic bathroom assassination scene.
There are several potential suspects from within Tony’s own crew and family, including mobster Paulie Walnuts, Tony’s son A.J., his wife Carmela, his daughter Meadow, and Patsy Parisi, who may harbor resentment from his brother’s death.

Even though it has been 17 years since the conclusion of The Sopranos television audiences continue to discuss and debate Tony Soprano’s fate and potential death in the series finale. One of the best and most influential television series of all time, when it was released, The Sopranos represented the starting point of the Golden Age of television and stood as a testament to the quality of HBO’s programming. With such a committed and interested audience as The Sopranos had amassed, there are, of course, many theories about how Tony met his end following the infamous cut to black ending of The Sopranos.

In The Sopranos final scene, there are several different customers in the diner who could all potentially be planning to assassinate Tony. While some characters like the guy in the “Members Only” jacket look menacing, others appear more benign. However, it leads to the question of who had a motive to kill Tony and if a hit on his life could be coming from inside his own crew, members of his family, or his past bad deeds finally catching up with him. Whatever the truth genuinely was, there were plenty of theories that could explain Tony’s death.

The Guy In The Members Only Jacket
Tony’s death could have been caused by this nervous looking diner patron

The most common theory about The Sopranos finale relates to the guy in the “Member’s Only” jacket nervously sitting at the counter. It makes sense to assume he would assassinate Tony Soprano, as, if he served no purpose, there was no reason to give him so much screen time. The “Member’s Only” logo took on extra meaning due to its association with Eugene Pontecorvo, who killed himself after both Tony and the FBI refused to let him retire in Florida. This common theory suggested that the guy in the “Members Only” jacket would assassinate Tony as revenge for Tony’s part in the tragic end of Eugune’s life

Tony’s Death Acts As A Homage To The Godfather
Tony’s death could have mimiking an iconic scene from The Godfather

The guy in the “Members Only” jacket who walked into the diner in the final scene appeared to be acting nervous and then walked into the men’s room bathroom less than one minute before the credits cut to black. This moment could be seen as a homage to the famous scene in The Godfather where Michael Corleone retrieves a gun planted in the bathroom to assassinate rival mobsters Sollozzo and McCluskey. This connection has led many viewers to believe that the guy in the ”Members Only” jacket had a similar intention to kill Tony.

Paulie Walnuts Put A Hit On Tony

Tony’s death could have come from inside his own crew
Mobster Paulie “Walnuts” Gualtieri had a complex relationship with his boss Tony Soprano throughout The Sopranos run, and if Tony’s presumed death in the show’s final scene came from inside his crew, then Paulie would be a prime suspect. A Reddit theory suggested Paulie had a motive to put a hit on Tony as over the years his loyalty became less secure as he was continually passed over. Paulie was also strangely close with the New York mobsters and there was a chance he was persuaded to join a rival gang. While Paulie did stay loyal throughout The Sopranos there were a few hints he could be turned against Tony.

A.J., Carmela, Or Meadow Soprano Had Tony Whacked
Tony’s death could have come from inside his own familyWhile it was unlikely Tony’s death was caused by his family, there was a small chance one of them had decided to put a hit on him. Considering this, each character could have a motive for orchestrating Tony’s death. Tony’s son A.J. showed discomfort towards the mob lifestyle and may have thought killing Tony could free him from that life. Tony’s wife Carmela may have wanted to take control of her children’s welfare and ensure their safety by eliminating Tony. While Tony’s daughter Meadow appeared the least likely to harm him, she may have felt no choice but to take extreme measures to cut her family ties with the mob.

Patsy Parisi Orchestrated Tony’s Death
Tony’s death could have come as revenge for an old hit he orderedIn terms of characters in The Sopranos who had a motive to assassinate Tony, Patsy Parisi comes out on top. Patsy was not as fleshed as many of the other characters on The Sopranos but the fact that his twin brother Philly was killed by a hit ordered by Tony meant he may harbor resentment and wish to seek revenge. Patsy planning to kill Tony was not unprecedented as in the Season 3 premiere “Mr. Ruggerio’s Neighborhood” a drunken Patsy snuck into Tony’s garden and pointed a gun at Tony through the window, while he did not go through it that time it showed his willingness to kill Tony.

David Chase’s Original Ending Happens Later
Tony’s death could have happened a much different way

While in the end, The Sopranos creator David Chase chose to finish the series with its now iconic cut to black, in an interview with the Hollywood Reporter, Chase stated this was not how he originally envisioned the finale. Considering this, there is a chance that Tony’s death later occurs the way Chase planned it. The ending was a scene that was going to be a twist on the opening credits where Tony was driving back to New Jersey but instead would feature Tony driving to a meeting in New York where he would be killed. Later, Chase saw a diner like where The Sopranos ends and thought that’s where Tony should meet his end.

Nobody Kills Tony In The Finale, But His Life Is Never Secure
Tony’s death may not have happened in the diner at all

While many theories speculate about how Tony would meet his end in the seconds immediately following the closing credits, an almost more interesting theory was that he did not die then and there, but that he would be killed someday. The sad reality of life for Tony was that no matter how much he prioritized his family, Tony’s mob boss life would always catch up with him one day. Even if Tony was not killed in that diner there were just too many people who had a reason to assassinate him to believe he could ever have a happy ending. If it did not happen that day, it did another.